Picture yourself as a quarterback in the Super Bowl. You’re down by four with seconds on the clock. You scan the defense, heart pounding. You have a decision to make—right now. Is it risky? Maybe. But if you don’t act, the game is already lost.
Like that quarterback, today’s leaders often make high-stakes decisions under pressure. Many of my executive coaching clients—especially during performance reviews—hear that they must "be more strategic." But what does that really mean? Strategy isn’t about predicting the future with certainty. It’s about making confident, calculated calls with the information you have, when you have it.
The Strategic Shift: From Execution-Focused to Forward-Looking
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many executives understandably became hyper-focused on execution—quarterly earnings, short-term goals, and immediate results. However, as recent Financial Times articles highlight, this shift often left strategic thinking underdeveloped, leaving companies vulnerable in a world of geopolitical shifts, technological disruption, and workforce instability.
Studies show that few CEOs invest in long-term initiatives during volatility. With high interest rates, complex regulations, and shifting political landscapes, it’s tempting to play it safe or lean heavily on AI to handle complexity, but playing it safe rarely fuels growth.
A strategic leader is akin to a championship coach: they’re willing to take measured risks, explore new markets, and balance innovation with employee welfare. This doesn’t mean throwing caution to the wind—it means steadying yourself to make decisive calls and trusting your team to execute.
Culture Is Created in the Moment
Leadership isn’t just about setting targets; it’s about shaping organizational culture with every decision. Each choice—whether entering a new market or handling a crisis—signals your values and priorities.
If you want a high-performing, purpose-driven culture, demonstrate the mindset you expect from your team. Bold, strategic decisions encourage long-term thinking, innovation, and collaboration.
Think of it like football: The best coaches aren’t micromanagers; they equip players with a smart playbook and then trust them to make real-time adjustments on the field.
The 50% Clarity Rule: Acting Without Perfect Information
One of the most powerful ways to build strategic muscle is to embrace what I call the 50% Clarity Rule. Drawing inspiration from Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow (which unpacks how we make decisions with limited information) and Eric Ries’s The Lean Startup (which advocates for incremental experimentation), this rule recognizes a vital truth: waiting for perfect information can paralyze progress.
In today’s fast-moving world, leaders who act with 50–70% of the data can seize opportunities faster and adapt as new information emerges. The key is to move forward while leaving room for course correction.
Bayes' Theorem: The Math Behind Good Decisions with Limited Data
Bayes' Theorem, a foundational concept in probability, reinforces this principle. It explains how we can update our beliefs and make better decisions as new information becomes available, rather than waiting for perfect clarity upfront.
Imagine you're an executive deciding whether to enter a new market. You start with an initial estimate: say, a 60% chance of success based on past trends. Then, as new data comes in—customer feedback, competitor moves, economic shifts—you update that probability. Perhaps you learn that a key competitor is struggling in that space, nudging your odds to 75% certainty. Instead of waiting for a full market analysis (which might take months), you make the call earlier, knowing you’ll refine your approach along the way.
This approach mirrors the decision-making process in high-stakes football games. A quarterback doesn’t wait until he’s 100% sure a receiver will be open—by then, the moment is gone. Instead, he assesses the odds, adjusts based on the defense’s movements, and makes the best possible throw.
A real-world leadership example: I coached a client who faced a looming regulatory shift with few details. Instead of waiting months for full clarity—which might have meant heavy fines or missed market opportunities—she applied the 50% Clarity Rule. Gathering early indicators and expert opinions, she made a strategic call at around 60–70% certainty. The final regulations have yet to be fully released, but her proactive stance earned her company trust with the regulators and competitive advantage.
The OODA Loop and BMNT: Moving at the Right Moment
How do you make big decisions quickly when so much is in flux? Enter the OODA Loop, developed by military strategist John Boyd. This four-step cycle (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) helps leaders cut through complexity and act decisively:
Observe: Collect real-time data—both internal (financial metrics, employee sentiment) and external (market trends, customer insights).
Orient: Analyze the data in context. Look for patterns and identify potential risks.
Decide: Make an informed choice. Recognize no option is perfect, but inaction can be riskier than an imperfect call.
Act: Implement swiftly, keeping an eye on feedback to adjust if necessary.
This ties directly into a military concept known as BMNT (Before Morning Nautical Twilight). Special operations forces are trained to launch missions at the precise moment when there’s just enough light to operate effectively, but still enough darkness to maintain the element of surprise. If they wait too long for full daylight, they lose their advantage. If they move too early, they risk acting blindly.
A real-world example: A CPO I coached was launching a product in a rapidly changing market. Waiting too long risked losing first-mover advantage. Acting too soon meant launching with incomplete features. Applying BMNT thinking, she identified the optimal launch window—not too early, but not so late that competitors captured demand. The result? Her company became a category leader while rivals scrambled to catch up.
Conclusion: Embracing Imperfect Decisions
In an era marked by constant uncertainty, hesitation can be a big risk. The most successful leaders aren’t the ones with all the answers in their back pocket; they’re the ones who:
Make decisions decisively with the information they have (50% Clarity Rule).
Update their approach as new data emerges (Bayes' Theorem).
Move at the right moment, before the window of opportunity closes (BMNT & OODA Loop).
You can’t always wait for the perfect play. Sometimes, you have to make the call, trust your training, and let your team do what they do best—execute.
You can’t always wait for the perfect play. Sometimes, you have to make the call, trust your training, and let your team do what they do best—execute.
If you’re ready to cultivate a culture of confident decision-making and nimble strategy in your organization, I invite you to start a conversation with me. #ExecutiveCoaching offers the frameworks, accountability, and support needed to help you—and your team—master the art of making the call, even when the information isn’t crystal clear.
Great leaders don’t wait for perfect information—they make bold, strategic decisions with confidence, even in uncertainty. Drawing from Super Bowl quarterbacks, military strategy, and Bayes’ Theorem, this article explores how executives can sharpen their decision-making skills using the 50% Clarity Rule, the OODA Loop, and the concept of BMNT. The key to winning—whether in business or on the field—is knowing when to act and trusting your team to execute.